Writers are like that. When I met Tobin fifteen or so years ago, I knew he was a genius. Not everybody knew, though, so his odds, so to speak, would have been juicy. Now, everybody knows. No money to be made there for a bettor.
Also like thoroughbreds, not everybody lives up to his/her potential. We all know a story about some first book phenomenon with a $100k new contract who didn't sell 30 thousand copies of the second book and was essentially never heard from again. The equestrian equivalent of ending up at the Big Fresno Fair.
And then there are the mid-level steeds who week in and week go out there there and do the best they can. A few aches and pains but those never trump determination and guts.
Most of us ache a little for one reason or another. But we write, anyway. Revise diligently. Send the manuscripts out regularly. Celebrate the wins, deplore the losses and the next morning or the next week or the next month, get out there and run for our equivalent of the roses again.
P.S. An Australian editor of a magazine called JACKET has a new web page and this week I'm on it with a selection of poems from the past. If you're interested, go to my website (http://ronkoertge.com/rons-books/). The JACKET info will be up today or tomorrow.